The Meteorologist’s Paradox

NOAA's 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook shown in a pie chart with an 85% chance of above normal activity. Named storms are predicted to be 17-25, hurricanes 8-13 and major hurricanes 4-7.

How are meteorologists feeling right now? Honestly, their feelings are mixed.

I speak as a former TV meteorologist long out of “the biz” but still connected via social media with many on air, at the National Weather Service, and involved in research and teaching.

Before this hurricane season began, researchers predicted that the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season would be particularly bad and TV meteorologists shared that prediction with their viewers.

Then, as the season progressed, it was unexpectedly quiet, even though all the ingredients were there for disaster. This worried them for a reason that might surprise you.

It wasn’t that they were worried about being wrong (it might have nagged them a little, but that’s minor). The real concern was the possibility of losing the confidence of those who had heard about the prediction. It’s a “boy who cried wolf” scenario where if you too often put out dire warnings that don’t materialize, when there is truly an emergency, people will have stopped listening to you or will only listen when it’s too late.

Now the US is reeling from the impact of Hurricane Helene as Hurricane Milton barrels down on Florida.

And so the feelings are mixed.

There may be a small amount of relief that trust has been maintained. And yes, there is a large amount of awe regarding the power of Mother Nature. The more you study weather, the more you realize how beyond our control it truly is (contrary to lies circulating social media by people trying to sensationalize the situation for their benefit).

But more than that, there is fear and dread. Because they’ve seen, often times first-hand, what destruction is possible. They know that not everyone has the ability or desire to escape the storm’s path. They know what a 150mph wind can do or a 17 ft storm surge.

These meteorologists do all of the prep they can at the own homes and for their own families and pets. Then they leave, to spend night(s) sleeping on cots at a station or NWS office, working 12+ hour shifts. Some risk their own lives to go out into the storm to take measurements or to show viewers what’s happening in the hopes that people will stay home.

So to them, I say thank you. For their dedication, their compassion and their sense of duty to the greater community.

#Meteorologists #HurricaneHelene #HurricaneMilton

NOAA's 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook shown in a pie chart with an 85% chance of above normal activity. Named storms are predicted to be 17-25, hurricanes 8-13 and major hurricanes 4-7.
Image Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association
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